Friday, 23 July 2010

Quick Hitter For Friday

Here are five quick hits for your Friday enjoyment
  1. Rand Paul continues to lead in yet another poll. As much as the media has been trying to twist everything he says, it is amazing he still holds a lead. I can't wait to watch that lead begin to expand as we approach November.
  2. Conway supports Financial Regulatory bill. Conway continues his drift leftwards trying to spin this as a win for the little guy. When in reality is a hodge podge of liberal wish list items and other efforts to expand bureaucracy and does nothing to address the real issues.
  3. Rand Paul and Jack Conway spar at event hosted by Kentucky Farm Bureau. It is obvious that one candidate is for limiting government while the other is for continuing our death spiral of debt. Can you tell which is which?
  4. The Kentucky Alliance Against Racism wants the city to buy LG&E. This is a fabulous idea. We all see how well it has worked when the city took over MSD. NOT! Only a fool who wants poor service at a premium price would want government to take over any private business.
  5. Racing Regulators OK slots at tracks. It doesn't seem like any of the tracks are biting on it for two reasons. One it hasn't made any other tracks much money. Secondly and more importantly, they are waiting to see how it plays out in the court system. This seems like a slam dunk case to me. Gambling is forbidden in the state constitution. We will have to see how it does in the court system.


Posted by brians at 9:39 AM in Kentucky Politics
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Wednesday, 21 July 2010

How Is The Media's Anything But The Issues Campaign Working?

We are about two months into general election for the Kentucky U.S. Senate. Over those two months the media has done everything in their power to bring up non-important issues to pain Paul as a nut. I have dubbed this the "Anything But the Issues Campaign" because they have ignored to big issues because they don't help media darling Conway.

It is time to check into how well the media's "Anything But The Issues Campaign" is working. The latest Rasmussen poll came out today and it shows that the polling hasn't moved. Rand Paul still leads Conway 49-41.

Anyone wonder why the media's campaign has been a horrible failure? Here is a bit of a hint.
In Kentucky, just nine percent (9%) rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, while 50% rate it as poor. Twenty-seven percent (27%) say economic conditions are improving and 50% say they are getting worse.
Oh yeah and this too.
While 30% of Kentucky voters believe the $787 billion economic stimulus package passed last year helped the economy, 34% say it hurt. Most (58%) say the government spending in the stimulus did not create new jobs....By a 61% to 16% margin, Kentucky voters believe cutting taxes is a better way than increasing spending to create jobs.
And maybe some of this as well.
Support for repeal of the health care reform bill is slightly higher in Kentucky than it is nationally. While 61% favor repeal of the law, 31% are opposed.
No wonder the media hasn't been able to move the numbers. Rand Paul represents the majority view of Kentuckians. No matter how much the media tries to change the subject, Conway is just on the wrong side of all of these issues which Kentuckians care. I expect the media campaign to continue, but I don't imagine it will be any more effective than it already has been.

I also believe we may be seeing the high water mark for Conway. Once the campaigns start advertising (and the media's spin matters less), I think we are going to see more Kentuckians moving to Paul. Unless the mood of voters changes drastically in the next couple of months, I just don't see where Conway is going to get any more votes.


Posted by brians at 10:07 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Monday, 19 July 2010

Anything But The Issues Cycle Continues

I like Al Cross. I don't always agree with him, but I find what he writes about to be interesting. Unfortunately his latest effort strikes me as another attempt at an "anything but the issues" story rather than serious political commentary.
Rand Paul won the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate because he ran on a strong, clear and philosophical platform -- cut spending, balance the budget, reduce the size of government and change the way Washington works -- at a time when it was ideally suited to the feelings of GOP primary voters.

But the Bowling Green eye doctor's clear philosophical vision does not apply so well for the general election. As he seeks the votes of Democrats, moderates and independents, and tries to adjust his political prescriptions, he may be creating even more problems for himself.
Al Cross continues on providing a compelling argument about Paul's positions on federal funding for drugs, agriculture, and coal. The Lexington Herald jumped onto the agriculture subsidy band wagon today. The only problem is these are non-issues in this election. This election is all about cutting spending, balancing the budget, and reducing the size of government. Especially in light of the debacle that is Obamacare.

Where is the analysis about Conway's hard run to the left to win his primary? It seems to me that Conway's untenable positions on THE big issues of the day create a more difficult obstacle than Paul's views on some side issues. I just won't hold my breath waiting for that story. Instead we will continue to get a steady drum beat of side line stories about how Paul will be bad for Kentucky or even Sen McConnell.

It is the only chance they have to drag Conway across the finish line with 50.1% of the vote. And that is a long shot at best.

Posted by brians at 10:28 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Thursday, 15 July 2010

It's On In The 3rd District

We are about a month away from the kickoff to the fall campaigns and the 2nd quarter financial reports for each campaign have been released. One of the big question marks for me was could Lally compete in the 3rd district against Yarmuth!. Could he raise the money to be competitive? I think the answer is yes. Lally was able to raise over $250,000 in the last quarter. That was a nice haul for him. Heck it was more than Yarmuth! raised in the same period.

While Lally still trails Yarmuth! with cash on hand $600,000 to $270,000, he has the money to buy air time and get out his message. Hopefully, Lally will be able to further close that financial gap even further in the coming months. Regardless in a Republican year, Lally should have enough money to make this a tight race in November. I am anxious to see polling on this battle. Some internal polls have shown it to be a close race. We can only hope.

Note: The Stupid Company of the Day award goes to UPS. What better way to show gratitude to your employee than to give some of the profits he has helped the company earn and give it to his political opponent. I can't fathom a better way to boost the morale within your organization. Unbelievable. I am not saying that UPS should have given money to Lally. Heck I don't think any employer should be forced to give money to an employee who runs for office. But I do think UPS should have stayed out of the race all together as a sign of respect to someone who is part of their company's success. Stupid.

Posted by brians at 9:50 PM in Louisville Politics
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Bunning Is Now Getting Long Overdue Props

I think it is hilarious to find a story on Bunning as a fiscal visionary.
The press lambasted Bunning and members of his own party begged him to back off as he jeopardized benefits for thousands of people.

Since then, almost the entire Republican party has taken up the retiring senator's argument that deficit reduction is more important than jobless aid, and extended benefits have been in limbo since the beginning of June, affecting 2.1 million people. The press has shed some its previous sympathy for the unemployed and now wonders, as many members of Congress do, if the extended benefits don't actually make them lazy.

For the GOP and Nebraska Democrat Ben Nelson, it turns out, Jim Bunning wasn't a pariah after all -- he was a fiscal visionary.
Duh? But I wouldn't call Bunning a visionary. He just understands fundamental principles of economics. Anyone could have made the predictions that Bunning made with a rudimentary knowledge on the subject. Exit Question: Have we descended so far into economic illiteracy that an application of basic economic concepts is considered visionary?


Posted by brians at 11:18 AM in Political Issues
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Wednesday, 14 July 2010

Democrats Still In Disarray

Time to get out the popcorn. Apparently, the fued between Mongiardo and Conway continues to rage.
Nearly two months after the Democratic Senate primary, not only has Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo not endorsed the winner, Attorney General Jack Conway, but the relationship between the bitter rivals appears to be worse than ever. 
Apparently the bad blood is over the Conway campaign's offer to retire Mongiardo's debt if he dropped the recanvas.
Mongiardo tells Ronnie Ellis what sources have shared with WHAS11 News -- that high level staff from both campaigns, acting on behalf of the candidates, reached an agreement the day after the primary.  In exchange for Mongiardo dropping the recanvass,  Conway would help him retire his campaign debt.
Oops. Conway could have just paid the debt off and moved on, but instead he has decided to renig on the deal and continue the fued.
"I think there were discussions about a lot of different things," said Conway, "There were discussions about how we bring the party together."

Sources say the Conway campaign made the offer, concerned that if the election result was up in the air, Conway's fundraising would be jeopardized.  The sources contend that Mongiardo has held up his end of the bargain, but that Conway has reneged on the deal.

"Listen, if the party people want to get together and help retire his debt, then I'm willing to be supportive of that," Conway allowed, "but this notion that I've got to, that we have to raise the money to retire his debt in order to get an endorsement, that is distasteful to me.  I would imagine that is distaseful to Dr. Mongiardo as well."

Mongiardo tells Ellis that an endorsement was not on the table, but the deal would have been a first step toward bringing the party together.
I don't understand this. Didn't Conway just take in a record $1.4 million dollar haul? Oh yeah, that included a $400,000 person loan. With over a half million dollars of his own money in the race, he realistically doesn't have that much money to give to his opponent. Especially since he is going to be trailing his Republican challenger in total fundraising.

Bottom line: Conway is screwed. Not only is Mongiardo going to continue to be a pain in his side, but it will allow the Paul people to make inroads with conservative Democrats. In the mean time pass the popcorn and enjoy the show as the Democrats slowly tear themselves appart.

Posted by brians at 9:19 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Republican Wave Will Be Their Doom? Really?

Every now and then you get stories about the doom of the Republican party. This time we get a prediction of doom before the re-emergence of the Republican majority.

At least Gerson starts by admitting their is a coming Republican wave.
There is little doubt about Republican ascendance. In June 2008,  Democrats enjoyed a nearly 20-point lead in the generic congressional  ballot; today they are behind. Approval for President Obama among  independents has fallen below 40 percent for the first time in his presidency.

Of course then he goes about telling us how the extremisim of the wave will doom the party.
But mainstream conservatives have been strangely disoriented by tea party excess, unable to distinguish the injudicious from the outrageous. Some rose to Angle's defense or attacked her critics. Just to be clear: A Republican Senate candidate has identified the United States Congress with tyranny and contemplated the recourse to
political violence. This is disqualifying for public office. It lacks, of course, the seriousness of genuine sedition. It is the conservative equivalent of the Ché Guevara T-shirt -- a fashion, a gesture, a toying with ideas the wearer only dimly comprehends.
This is not only hysteria, but historical illiteracy. Let's take a quote and see if you can guess who said it?
And what country can preserve its liberties, if its rulers are not warned from time to time, that this people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to the facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time, with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure."
I bet you are wondering which wacky tea party member said this? None other than Thomas Jefferson. Yeah one of the founders of our country. But if a modern politician echos the brilliant comments of our founding fathers they are "unfit to hold office". Are you serious? Only in the mind of a liberal is a quote reminicent of a founding father "scandolous" today. But he isn't done there. His next target is libertarianism.
In America, the ideology of libertarianism is itself a scandal. It involves not only a retreat from Obamaism but a retreat from the most basic social commitments to the weak, elderly and disadvantaged, along with a withdrawal from American global commitments. Libertarianism has a rigorous ideological coldness at its core. Voters are alienated when that core is exposed.
What the hell is he talking about? When is liberty and freedom "coldness".  It is core principle upon which this country was founded. But according to liberal dogma it is something that can no longer be tolerated. Voters don't really want freedom. See we liberals know what is best for them.

Next he turns his guns on Arizona's new immigration law.
In addition, the Republican wave carries along a group more interested in stigmatizing immigrants than winning their support. Some conservatives have found Arizona's anti-immigration law a cause worth fighting for -- a law that is poorly written, ineffective, symbolically toxic and likely to be overturned.
It is such a bad law that a similar law has been previously passed in California and Rhode Island. He offers no rationale for his take on the law except liberal talking points. Not to mention the fact that a large majority of Americans support the law. Of course last but not least we need to finish with how all of this will doom the Republican party.
With a major Republican victory in November, those who hold these views may well be elevated in profile and influence. And this could create durable, destructive perceptions of the Republican Party that take decades to change. A party that is intimidated and silent in the face of its extremes is eventually defined by them.
This is hillarious. I wonder if he wrote a similar article four years ago when the most radical liberals gained control of the Democratic party in congress? The big difference between 1994 and today is that this time the people elected might actually do something to roll back big government. Not pay lip service to it. That is the real reason why people are flocking to these tea party members. If they can begin to deliver on their promises they may just find themselves in the majority for a long time. Much to the chagrin of Gerson.

Posted by brians at 9:12 PM in Political Issues
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Saturday, 10 July 2010

Chandler Will Lose This Fall

I am convinced more than ever that Chandler is going to lose in the fall. Not only does he face a credible challenger in Andy Barr, but his continued drift to the left will doom him in the more moderate 6th district.

It doesn't help Chandler that his message is completely tone deaf in the year of voter angst at big government.
Now is not the time for Washington to stop spending money to stimulate the  economy, U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, D-Versailles, said Friday while taping a  television program.

Despite concerns about the growing budget deficit, Congress should keep  providing billions of dollars for extended unemployment benefits and aid  to state governments, Chandler said during a taping of WKYT-TV’S Kentucky Newsmakers program. The show will air Saturday at 11 a.m.

Republicans in the House and Senate recently blocked such measures,  arguing that it’s time for the federal government to dramatically cut  spending.

“Before we can even begin to think about the deficit, we have got to get  the economy moving again,” Chandler said during the taping. In an interview afterward with the Herald-Leader, he added, “Show me any circumstance where you take money out of the economy and the
economy gets stronger as a result. I just don’t believe that. If you  pull money out of the economy now, the economy will lose jobs.”
Are you serious? Chandler's grasp of basic economics is tenuous at best. Government spending
is not magical. The money comes from one of two places. The private sector or from continued borrowing. Neither of which can help the economy grow. Not to mention how the overreach of federal government creates an environment that keeps capital on the side lines. Yet Chandler suggests more government spending. Unbelievable.

If you don't believe me, here is the graphical proof of the complete failure of Kensyian policies.
First let's start with unemployment in the United States. The star represents the "stimulus" package.



Not exactly a ringing endorsement of it's positive effects. But what is more damning is to compare the unemployment chart with Canada. A country that didn't waste a but load of taxpayer money on a "stimulus" package.



Hmmm, which is better? Obviously doing nothing trumps wild government spending. But you might argue that unemployment has leveled off in the time after the stimulus. That is only because people have stopped looking for jobs. Check out this chart which shows people who fit into this category.



Once again we see a chart heading in the wrong direction.

Bottom line is the economy hasn't improved since the passage of the stimulus and has at best come to a stand still. Yet Chandler argues that we need to keep doing the same thing. The only thing more spending will do is turn the U.S. into a Banana Republic.

Albert Einstien said it best. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. In this instance, Chandler is obviously insane. And I suspect the voters in
the 6th district will justly reward him for his ignorance.

Posted by brians at 2:44 PM in Kentucky Politics
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Sunday, 4 July 2010

Calvin Coolidge on July 4th

I was surfing around today and came across a reference to a Calvin Coolidge's speech on July 4th in 1926. Calvin Coolidge, one of our better presidents,  in his speech laid bare the reasoning, meaning, and principles behind the Declaration of Independence.  The entire speech is a fantastic read for July 4th.

Here is my favorite part from the speech.

We are too prone to overlook another conclusion. Governments do not make ideals, but ideals make governments. This is both historically and logically true. Of course the government can help to sustain ideals and can create institutions through which they can be the better observed, but their source by their very nature is in the people. The people have to bear their own responsibilities. There is no method by which that burden can be shifted to the government. It is not the enactment, but the observance of laws, that creates the character of a nation.

About the Declaration there is a finality that is exceedingly restful. It is often asserted that the world has made a great deal of progress since 1776, that we have had new thoughts and new experiences which have given us a great advance over the people of that day, and that we may therefore very well discard their conclusions for something more modern. But that reasoning can not be applied to this great charter. If all men are created equal, that is final. If they are endowed with inalienable rights, that is final. If governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed, that is final. No advance, no progress can be made beyond these propositions. If anyone wishes to deny their truth or their soundness, the only direction in which he can proceed historically is not forward, but backward toward the time when there was no equality, no rights of the individual, no rule of the people. Those who wish to proceed in that direction can not lay claim to progress. They are reactionary. Their ideas are not more modern, but more ancient, than those of the Revolutionary fathers.

Wow! It gives me chills that these truths stated so plainly back in 1926 still ring true today.

Posted by brians at 2:13 PM in Political Issues
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Independence Day

234 years ago today, 56 men gathered in Philadelphia to sign a declaration of independence from the oppressive tyranny of England. On that July 4th, those men sparked the flame of liberty. One that has grown over the past 200 plus years into a beacon of freedom for the entire world. A shining city on the hill. For we are not a great country because of our geography. We are a great country because we are free men.

Today we gather together not only to celebrate the bold signers of the declaration and the men and women who have struggled since to ensure our continued freedom. But to reaffirm our own commitment to the principals laid out that day.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.
While life, liberty, and the pursuit of our dreams are unalienable rights, they are not guaranteed. And we must today declare our support to defend these rights from those who wish to oppress. Only then can we guarantee our continued freedom,  our continued greatness, and our continued leadership in the world. It is our duty.

Happy Independence Day!

Posted by brians at 1:34 PM in Political Issues
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